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SPC Oct 9, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Oct 9, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

October 9, 2017 Safety sailing Weather 0

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2017

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST KS AND
EASTERN OK...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST
MO/SOUTHEAST KS TO CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely between 4 to 10 pm
CDT centered on southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Very large
hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible.

...Southeast KS and eastern OK...
A compact shortwave trough over the Four Corners will progress
eastward to KS/OK by tonight. An associated surface cyclone in
northwest OK will move eastward into northeast OK, as a trailing
cold front surges southeastward across the southern Great Plains. 
Ahead of the cyclone/cold front, rich low-level moisture
characterized by 67-71 F surface dew points will continue to spread
north across OK. This moistening in conjunction with diabatic
heating beneath the eastern extent of steeper mid-level lapse rates
will result in a confined corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg by
late afternoon.

Scattered storm development is expected just north of the
surface cyclone in south-central to southeast KS, southward along
the cold front in eastern OK during late afternoon/early evening.
Strengthening deep-layer shear with approach of the shortwave trough
will yield elongated hodographs favorable for supercells. Large
hail, some of which may be significant, and damaging winds should be
the main threats. A couple tornadoes are possible given the expected
increase in low-level moisture/buoyancy near the KS/OK border, but
the progressive nature of the cold front may spatiotemporally limit
this risk. The severe-storm threat will decrease towards late
evening given substantially weaker instability with eastern extent
as the front outpaces the steeper mid-level lapse rate plume.

..Grams/Gleason.. 10/09/2017

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