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SPC Oct 8, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Oct 8, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

October 8, 2017 Safety sailing Weather 0

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
AND EAST-CENTRAL AL...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN
FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Several brief tornadoes will be possible today in an area from the
western Florida Panhandle northward into the western Carolinas.

...AL and FL Panhandle into the western Carolinas...
Tropical Cyclone Nate will move north-northeastward from the central
Gulf Coastal Plain into the southern Appalachians during the period
(please refer to NHC for the latest information).  Late Saturday
evening surface analysis showed very rich moisture (76 degree F
isodrosotherm) extending from Nate's center east-northeastward
across southern AL into south-central GA and the SC coastal plain. 
As the pressure gradient strengthens, a concurrent intensification
of southeasterly low-level winds across the AL to SC corridor will
advect middle 70s dewpoints into the I-85 corridor.  It remains
unclear where 1 or more bands of deeper convection/thunderstorms
will develop within the northeast quadrant, but some diurnal
destabilization coupled with rich low-level moisture will result in
weak buoyancy (200-600 J/kg MLCAPE).  Enlarged hodographs will
gradually shift north-northeastward from AL/western FL Panhandle
during the morning and into east-central AL northeastward into the
western Carolinas (I-85 corridor) during the midday through the
afternoon.  Several of the stronger and more discrete updrafts
within 1 or more bands will probably develop low-level mesocyclones
and a conditional risk for brief tornadoes primarily before sunset. 
Minor wind damage due to heavier showers may perhaps occur in a few
localized areas but the overall potential for severe gusts appears
rather low---hence less than 5% wind probabilities are forecast at
this time.

..Smith/Leitman.. 10/08/2017

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